Association of surgery and economic development in low-and middle-income countries: evidence from a dynamic panel data analysis

Martilord Ifeanyichi, Johnson Ezema Nchege, Ebikabowei Biedomo Aduku, Meskerem Aleka Kebede, Maeve Bognini, Rachel Hargest and Rocco Friebel

LSE Research Online Documents on Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library

Abstract: Introduction While health improvements drive economic growth, the specific macroeconomic impact of surgery remains unknown. Previous studies have quantified economic losses from unmet need but have not established whether surgery generates economic returns. This study investigates the association between surgical activity and economic growth across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Methods We analysed panel data from 95 LMICs (2000–2022) using System Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) estimation. Surgical volume was proxied by per capita suture consumption in kilograms (kg) measured by per capita suture imports (in kg), with gross domestic product (GDP) per capita adjusted for purchasing power parity as the outcome variable. We controlled for education, labour force, infrastructure, quality of governance, health expenditure, and credit availability while addressing endogeneity through internal instrumentation. Results Each 1% increase in per capita suture consumed corresponded to a 0.0083% increase in per capita GDP (p 0.05) or below the 75th percentile surgical activity settings (0.0049%; p>0.05). In a secondary (non-log-transformed) model, a 1-kg increase in per capita sutures consumption corresponded to an increase of 89 international dollars in per capita GDP (p

JEL-codes: J1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-07-14
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Published in BMJ Global Health, 14, July, 2026, 11(Suppl 2), pp. e021115. ISSN: 2059-7908

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