Counting the costs: a quantitative assessment of the effects of Brexit on UK regions and sectors

Ningyuan Jia, Swati Dhingra, Emily Fry and Sophie Hale

LSE Research Online Documents on Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library

Abstract: This paper examines the implications of the EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) using a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model. Unlike previous studies that primarily projected potential impacts of Brexit based on uncertain scenarios, this analysis introduces new estimates of tariffs and non-tariff measures specified by the TCA. The findings show that while the TCA will necessitate substantial adjustments for some sectors, Brexit will not fundamentally alter the overall structure of the UK economy. However, the main impacts will manifest as significant hits to real wages and productivity, exacerbating the long-standing economic challenges faced by the UK.

Keywords: Brexit; EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA); UK regions and sectors; non-tariff measures; spatial general equilibrium (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C68 F13 F15 F16 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 37 pages
Date: 2026-10-31
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Published in Economica, 31, October, 2026, 93(372), pp. 1464 - 1500. ISSN: 0013-0427

Downloads: (external link)
https://researchonline.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/140318/ Open access version. (application/pdf)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 403 Forbidden

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ehl:lserod:140318

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in LSE Research Online Documents on Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library LSE Library Portugal Street London, WC2A 2HD, U.K.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by LSERO Manager ().