Revisiting test score forecasts and teacher value-added

Tom Ahn, Esteban Aucejo and Jonathan James

LSE Research Online Documents on Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library

Abstract: We develop a framework for comparing forecasts in teacher value-added models. We apply it to interpret the teacher-switching test of Chetty, Friedman, and Rockoff (2014), showing that the teacher-switching coefficient cannot be mechanically interpreted as a test of forecast unbiasedness: the correct null may differ from one, and a coefficient of one is insufficient for forecast unbiasedness. We also analyze forecast choice for ranking teachers and estimating teachers' effects on long-term outcomes. Although forecasts including current-year data may contain contemporaneous classroom shocks, they contain more teacher signal than leave-year-out forecasts, which improves rankings and may increase precision in long-term-outcome regressions.

Keywords: teacher value added; forecast construction; forecast aggregation; forecast unbiasedness; teacher rankings (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C52 C53 I21 J24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 45 pages
Date: 2026-09-28
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