Extending the use of scenario planning and MCDA for the evaluation of strategic options

Camelia Ram, Gilberto Montibeller and Alec Morton

LSE Research Online Documents on Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library

Abstract: Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is well equipped to deal with conflicting, qualitative objectives when evaluating strategic options. Scenario planning provides a framework for confronting uncertainty, which MCDA lacks. Integration of these methods offers various advantages, yet its effective application in evaluating strategic options would benefit from scenarios that reflect a larger number of wide-ranging scenarios developed in a time-efficient manner, as well as incorporation of MCDA measures that inform within and across scenario comparison of options. The main contribution of this paper is to illustrate how a more diverse set of scenarios could be developed quickly, and to investigate how regret could be used to facilitate comparison of options. First, the reasons for these two areas of development are elaborated with respect to existing techniques. The impacts of applying the proposed method in practice are then assessed through a case study involving food security in Trinidad and Tobago. The paper concludes with a discussion of findings and areas for further research.

Keywords: decision analysis; strategic planning; scenario (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-05
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (16)

Published in Journal of the Operational Research Society, May, 2011, 62(5), pp. 817-829. ISSN: 0160-5682

Downloads: (external link)
http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/32215/ Open access version. (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ehl:lserod:32215

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in LSE Research Online Documents on Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library LSE Library Portugal Street London, WC2A 2HD, U.K.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by LSERO Manager (lseresearchonline@lse.ac.uk).