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A theory of countercyclical government multiplier

Pascal Michaillat

LSE Research Online Documents on Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library

Abstract: I develop a New Keynesian model in which a type of government multiplier doubles when unemployment rises from 5 percent to 8 percent. This multiplier indicates the additional number of workers employed when one worker is hired in the public sector. Graphically, in equilibrium, an upward-sloping quasi-labor supply intersects a downward-sloping labor demand in a (employment, labor market tightness) plane. Increasing public employment stimulates labor demand, which increases tightness and therefore crowds out private employment. Critically, the quasi-labor supply is convex. Hence, when labor demand is depressed and unemployment is high, the increase in tightness and resulting crowding-out are small.

Keywords: multiplier; unemployment; business cycle; job rationing; matching frictions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E12 E24 E32 E62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30 pages
Date: 2014-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (114)

Published in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January, 2014, 6(1), pp. 190-217. ISSN: 1945-7707

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