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Global population growth, technology and Malthusian constraints: a quantitative growth theoretic perspective

Bruno Lanz, Simon Dietz and Tim Swanson

LSE Research Online Documents on Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library

Abstract: We structurally estimate a two-sector Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous population and finite land reserves to study the long-run evolution of global population, technological progress and the demand for food. The estimated model closely replicates trajectories for world population, GDP, sectoral productivity growth and crop land area from 1960 to 2010. Projections from 2010 onwards show a slowdown of technological progress, and, because it is a key determinant of fertility costs, significant population growth. By 2100 global population reaches 12.4 billion and agricultural production doubles, but the land constraint does not bind because of capital investment and technological progress.

Keywords: Global population; technological progress; economic growth; agriculture; Malthusian constraints; land conversion; structural estimation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-08-25
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

Published in International Economic Review, 25, August, 2017, 58(3), pp. 973-1006. ISSN: 0020-6598

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http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/66496/ Open access version. (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: GLOBAL POPULATION GROWTH, TECHNOLOGY, AND MALTHUSIAN CONSTRAINTS: A QUANTITATIVE GROWTH THEORETIC PERSPECTIVE (2017) Downloads
Working Paper: Global Population Growth, Technology and Malthusian Constraints: A Quantitative Growth Theoretic Perspective (2016) Downloads
Working Paper: Global Population Growth, Technology and Malthusian Constraints: A Quantitative Growth Theoretic Perspective (2016) Downloads
Working Paper: Global population growth, technology and Malthusian constraints: A quantitative growth theoretic perspective (2016) Downloads
Working Paper: Global Population Growth, Technology, and Malthusian Constraints: A Quantitative Growth Theoretic Perspective (2015) Downloads
Working Paper: Global population growth, technology, and Malthusian constraints: a quantitative growth theoretic perspective (2014) Downloads
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