The vanishing impact of financial crises: fluctuations of the bankruptcy rate in France, 1820-1913

Vincent Bignon

No 11004, Working Papers from Economic History Society

Abstract: "This paper studies a century of fluctuations of the bankruptcy rate in France between 1820 and 1913. Focusing on the amplitude of the short-run fluctuations, it is shown that the variations of the bankruptcy rate decreased hugely during the 1870s and continued during the following decades. It is further shown that the very-high variance of the pre-1870 period cannot be explained only by outlier-type of observations and that the pattern of the series of fluctuations differs substantially from the fluctuations of other economic variables such as the GDP, the index of industrial production or wheat price. It appears very unlikely that those results were driven by changes in the demography of firms. Therefore the massive decrease of the variance of the bankruptcy rate is linked to the changes of the policies implemented by the central bank. The review of the massive changes of monetary policies shows that they are coherent with a decreasing variance."

JEL-codes: N00 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-04
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