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Exports, growth and causality: new evidence on Italy, 1863-2004

Alberto Rinaldi and Barbara Pistoresi
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Barbara Pistoresi: University of Modena and Reggio Emilia

No 11009, Working Papers from Economic History Society

Abstract: "This paper investigates the relationship between real export and real GDP in Italy from 1863 to 2004 by using cointegration analysis and causality tests. The outcome suggests that these variables comove in the long run but the direction of causality depends on the level of economic development: in the period prior to WW1 the growth of the Italian economy led that of exports, while in the post-WW2 period the causal relationship was reversed with the expansion of exports that determined the growth of the Italian economy. "

JEL-codes: F43 N1 N7 O11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-04
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Working Paper: Exports,growth and causality. New evidence on Italy: 1863-2004 (2010) Downloads
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