Predictability of future economic growth and the credibility of different monetary regimes in Germany, 1870 - 2003

Markus Baltzer () and Gerhard Kling
Additional contact information
Markus Baltzer: University of Tuebingen

No 5023, Working Papers from Economic History Society

Abstract: "A regime with a high persistence of inflation and, hence, low credibility exhibits a high level of predictability of economic growth using the yield curve as indicator. Our study tries to quantify the degree of anticipation of economic growth and links this to the capability of regimes to fight against inflation. We focus on Germany and collect data from 1870 to 2003. The period of the Classical Gold Standard exhibited the highest credibility compared to the interwar period, the Bretton Woods and free float era. The reliability of the Bretton Woods agreement deteriorated years before the official break down in 1971."

Keywords: "credibility; term structure; yield curve" (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E27 E43 N13 N14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005-04
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.ehs.org.uk/dotAsset/a09f4b5c-126c-4cd5-b34b-cdf9a556142c.pdf (application/pdf)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 404 Not Found (http://www.ehs.org.uk/dotAsset/a09f4b5c-126c-4cd5-b34b-cdf9a556142c.pdf [301 Moved Permanently]--> https://ehs.org.uk/dotAsset/a09f4b5c-126c-4cd5-b34b-cdf9a556142c.pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ehs:wpaper:5023

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Economic History Society Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chair Public Engagement Committe (currently David Higgins - Newcastle) ().