Did globalisation lead to segmentation? Identifying cross-country growth regimes in the long-run, 1870-2003

Gianfranco Di Vaio () and Kerstin Enflo
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Gianfranco Di Vaio: LUISS Guido Carli University

No 9013, Working Papers from Economic History Society

Abstract: "Economic historians have stressed that income convergence was a key feature of the ëOECDñclubíand that globalization was among the accelerating forces of those process in the longñrun. This view has however been challenged, since it su§ers from an ad hoc selection of countries. In the paper, a mixture model is applied to a sample of 64 countries to endogenously identify the existence of crossñcountry growth regimes over the period 1870ñ2003. Results show that growth patterns were segmented in two worldwide regimes, the Örst one being characterized by convergence, and the other one denoted by divergence. This outcome is consistent with the predictions of recent growth theories. Interestingly, when three historical epochs are analyzed separately (1870ñ1913; 1913ñ1950; and 1950ñ2003), the dynamics which dominate over the whole period emerged only during the Second Global Wave. Therefore, history does not provide unambiguous evidence about globalization and growth."

Keywords: Globalization; Economic growth; Income convergence; Multiple regimes; Mixture models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C52 N10 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009-04
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