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Analysis of volatility transmissions in integrated and interconnected markets: The case of the Iberian and French markets

Aitor Ciarreta Antuñano () and Ainhoa Zarraga

BILTOKI from Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística)

Abstract: This paper models the mean and volatility spillovers of prices within the integrated Iberian and the interconnected Spanish and French electricity markets. Using the constant (CCC) and dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) bivariate models with three different specifications of the univariate variance processes, we study the extent to which increasing interconnection and harmonization in regulation have favoured price convergence. The data consist of daily prices calculated as the arithmetic mean of the hourly prices over a span from July 1st 2007 until February 29th 2012. The DCC model in which the variances of the univariate processes are specified with a VARMA(1,1) fits the data best for the integrated MIBEL whereas a CCC model with a GARCH(1,1) specification for the univariate variance processes is selected to model the price series in Spain and France. Results show that there are significant mean and volatility spillovers in the MIBEL, indicating strong interdependence between the two markets, while there is a weaker evidence of integration between the Spanish and French markets. We provide new evidence that the EU target of achieving a single electricity market largely depends on increasing trade between countries and homogeneous rules of market functioning.

Keywords: electricity price markets; multivariate GARCH; volatility spillovers (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C51 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-reg
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ehu:biltok:9184

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Dpto. de Econometría y Estadística, Facultad de CC. Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad del País Vasco, Avda. Lehendakari Aguirre 83, 48015 Bilbao, Spain

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