Economic Effects of Global Warming under Stock Growth Uncertainty: The European Sardine Fishery

José María Da Rocha, María-José Gutiérrez and Sebastián Villasante

No 1988-088X, DFAEII Working Papers from University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II

Abstract: Global warming of the oceans is expected to alter the environmental conditions that determine the growth of a fishery resource. Most climate change studies are based on models and scenarios that focus on economic growth, or they concentrate on simulating the potential losses or cost to fisheries due to climate change. However, analysis that addresses model optimization problems to better understand of the complex dynamics of climate change and marine ecosystems is still lacking. In this paper a simple algorithm to compute transitional dynamics in order to quantify the effect of climate change on the European sardine fishery is presented. The model results indicate that global warming will not necessarily lead to a monotonic decrease in the expected biomass levels. Our results show that if the resource is exploited optimally then in the short run, increases in the surface temperature of the fishery ground are compatible with higher expected biomass and economic profit.

Keywords: global warming; stock growth uncertainty; European sardine fishery (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-env and nep-res
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ehu:dfaeii:10021

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Dpto. de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico II, = Facultad de CC. Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad del País Vasco, Avda. Lehendakari Aguirre 83, 48015 Bilbao, Spain

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