Forecasting accuracy of behavioural models for participation in the arts

Victoria María Ateca Amestoy and Juan Prieto Rodríguez
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Victoria M. Ateca-Amestoy and Juan Prieto-Rodriguez ()

No 1988-088X, DFAEII Working Papers from University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II

Abstract: In this paper, we assess the forecasting performance of count data models applied to arts attendance. We estimate participation models for two artistic activities that differ in their degree of popularity -museum and jazz concerts- with data derived from the 2002 release of the Survey of Public Participation in the Arts for the United States. We estimate a finite mixture model – a zero-inflated negative binomial model - that allows us to distinguish “true” non-attendants and “goers” and their respective behaviour regarding participation in the arts. We evaluate the predictive (in-sample) and forecasting (out-of-sample) accuracy of the estimated models using bootstrapping techniques to compute the Brier score. Overall, the results indicate good properties of the model in terms of forecasting. Finally, we derive some policy implications from the forecasting capacity of the models, which allows for identification of target populations.

Keywords: forecasting; count data; prediction intervals; Brier scores; bootstrapping; arts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-01
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://addi.ehu.eus/handle/10810/6380 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Forecasting accuracy of behavioural models for participation in the arts (2013)
Working Paper: Forecasting accuracy of behavioural models for participation in the arts (2012)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ehu:dfaeii:6380

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
Dpto. de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico II, = Facultad de CC. Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad del País Vasco, Avda. Lehendakari Aguirre 83, 48015 Bilbao, Spain

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in DFAEII Working Papers from University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Alcira Macías Redondo ().