Testing the Forecasting Performance of Ibex 35 Option-implied Risk-neutral Densities
Roberto Blanco and
Gonzalo Rubio Irigoyen
No 2005-09, DFAEII Working Papers from University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II
The main objective of this paper is to test whether the risk-neutral densities (RNDs) implied in the prices of the future options contract on the Spanish IBEX 35 index accurately predict the distribution of future outcomes of the underlying asset. We estimate RNDs using both parametric and nonparametric procedures. We find that between 1996 and 2003 we cannot reject the hypothesis that the RNDs provide accurate predictions of the distributions of future realisations of the IBEX 35 index at four-week horizon. However, this result is not robust by subperiods. In particular, from October 1996 to February 2000, we find that RNDs are not able to consistently predict the actual realisations of returns. In this period, option prices assign a low risk-neutral probability to large rises compared with realisations. Tests based on the tails of the distribution show that RNDs significantly understate the right tail of the distribution for both the whole period and the first subperiod.
Keywords: risk-neutral densities; forecasting performance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G10 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Working Paper: Testing the forecasting performace of IBEX 35 option implied risk neutral densities (2005)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ehu:dfaeii:6739
Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
Dpto. de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico II, = Facultad de CC. Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad del País Vasco, Avda. Lehendakari Aguirre 83, 48015 Bilbao, Spain
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in DFAEII Working Papers from University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Alcira Macías Redondo ().