Valuing Flexibility: The case of an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Power Plant

Luis María Abadie and Jose Chamorro

No 6483, IKERLANAK from Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico I

Abstract: In this paper we analyze the valuation of options stemming from the flexibility in an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) Power Plant. First we use as a base case the opportunity to invest in a Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) Power Plant, deriving the optimal investment rule as a function of fuel price and the remaining life of the right to invest. Additionally, the analytical solution for a perpetual option is obtained. Second, the valuation of an operating IGCC Power Plant is studied, with switching costs between states and a choice of the best operation mode. The valuation of this plant serves as a base to obtain the value of the option to delay an investment of this type. Finally, we derive the value of an opportunity to invest either in a NGCC or IGCC Power Plant, that is, to choose between an inflexible and a flexible technology, respectively. Numerical computations involve the use of one- and two-dimensional binomial lattices that support a mean-reverting process for the fuel prices. Basic parameter values refer to an actual IGCC power plant currently in operation.

Keywords: real options; power plants; flexibility; stochastic costs (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005-10
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Journal Article: Valuing flexibility: The case of an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle power plant (2008)
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Dpto. de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico I, Facultad de CC. Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad del País Vasco, Avda. Lehendakari Aguirre 83, 48015 Bilbao, Spain

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