Silver economy as possible export direction at ageing Europe – case of Slovakia

Marek Radvansky, Marek Radvansky and Viliam Palenik
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Marek Radvansky

No 3280, EcoMod2011 from EcoMod

Abstract: Aging of European citizens is a real threat for public finances of member countries, but also the demand by aging population is an opportunity for some sectors or economies. Under the term silver economy we understand adaptation of the economy to future needs of growing population of those over 50 years. This phenomenon creates new market possibilities, which are not sensitive to economic crisis. It was reasonable to measure share of existing Slovak export into EU 15 directly or indirectly connected to fulfilling the demand of elderly. According to econometric simulations, 50 % specialization would lead to additional economic growth, 1.5 percent points in first decade. This strategy would make Slovak economy profit from export of silver economy goods and services into EU 15 countries. Consequently, Slovakia would be ready to face its own aging, which is to fully occur after year 2025.To enumerate effects of export potential, macroeconometric model developed at Slovak Academy of Sciences will be used. Export potetial of silver economy will be incorporated as foreign demand shock. Provided results will be widened by following estimation of structural changes made by CGE model of Slovakia.Preliminary results estumated by macroeconomic model shows additional 1,5 perc.points on coutry GDP growth by using only 50 % of Silver economy potential. More detailed results will be provided in final paper after further research.

Keywords: Slovakia; model is suitable for small open economies in Europe; Agent-based modeling; Agent-based modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-07-06
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