Is "Arap Spring" Turkey's Winter?

Engin Sorhun

No 4347, EcoMod2012 from EcoMod

Abstract: Due to membership process, the European Union (EU) is the principal trade partner of Turkey. It has concentrated more than half of its total trade flows with EU countries since the II. World War. However, along with emerging of new markets in Asia, Turkey engaged in developing economic ties with many Asian countries in additional to its conventional trade partners. Especially, following “zero problem with neighbours” policy which has been pursued by Turkey since 2002 the trade volume with the Middle Eastern neighbours has increased faster than that with its traditional partners. Nevertheless so called “Arab Spring” started to show its effects on this trend. “Arab Spring” weakens not only the economies of the concerned countries but also Turkey’s trade flows with them. My paper aims to determine first the impacts of “the policy of zero problem with neighbours” and second the eventual impact of “Arab Spring” on the trade development of Turkey with its Middle Eastern neighbours. Gravity based estimation model. Fixed effects estimated with various situations.In the first part, I develop a gravity based model in order to estimate the impact of policy change on the trade development. In the second part, expending my model I estimate that Arab Spring will have an impact enduring longer than predicted on the expending trade volume of Turkey with its neighbours.

Keywords: Turkey and its Middle Eastern Neighbours; Trade and regional integration; Regional modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-07-01
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ekd:002672:4347

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