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Great Moderation and Great Recession. From plain sailing to stormy seas?

Ana Gómez-Loscos (), María Gadea () and Gabriel Perez-Quiros (Bank of Spain)
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Gabriel Perez Quiros

No 8267, EcoMod2015 from EcoMod

Abstract: Many have argued that the Great Recession of 2008 marks the end of the Great Moderation of the eighties and nineties. This paper shows this is not the case through painstaking empirical analysis of the data. Output volatility remains subdued despite the tumult created by the Great Recession. This finding has important implications for policymaking since a lower volatility of output (the hallmark of the Great Moderation) is associated with lower recoveries. We revisit the results obtained in the seminal paper of McConnell and Perez-Quiros (2000) with the updated sample so as to include the most recent developments associated with the GR. We find that the GM, as it was originally formulated, still holds. However, we want to test the robustness of this result. Firstly, we apply additional econometric techniques that allow the possibility of multiple structural breaks in the volatility of the series. Secondly, to test the validity of the results, we perform different experiments considering alternative economic scenarios for the future, extending the business cycle features of the GR several periods ahead, concocting the observations of the GR with those of the GM and even simulating processes of higher volatility. The global financial crisis of 2007 and the ensuing economic recession has prompted a debate on the possible end of the tranquil times of the GM. However, this paper presents evidence that the decrease in volatility associated with the GM seems to be quite a permanent phenomenon that holds in spite of the occurrence of further downturns in the characteristics of the GR or even of the fact that this may continue to extended horizons. The fact that the GR holds even though we have su ered a strong recession, and the fact that it would hold even if we have this pattern of recession-recovery for a long time, should make us reconsider the explanations roposed in the literature about the causes of the GM, especially those related to good policy or good luck.

Keywords: the United States; Business cycles; Macroeconometric modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-07-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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