ALTERNATIVE GROWTH INDUSTRIES IN GABON: AN INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS

Reyno Seymore () and Martin Combrinck

No 9076, EcoMod2016 from EcoMod

Abstract: The objective of the study is to determine the necessary growth magnitudes in exogenous final demand for the alternative growth industries identified by the Gabonese government, which would directly offset the GDP decline resulting from the decrease in the production of oil. Input-output analysis has been identified as the appropriate methodology, especially due to data restrictions, since it can be used to evaluate the direct and indirect effects on the economy of various simulations. In the process of answering the study objective, a symmetric input-output table is developed which, at the time of writing, did not exist for Gabon. All the alternative growth industries were simulated separately to directly offset the decline in the oil production, and the required growth magnitudes in these industries were calculated. In addition, a fifth scenario identified that an 8.16% increase in the exogenous final demand of all the alternative growth industries, is sufficient to directly offset the effect that the 2.80% decline in production of the “Production of “raw” petrol and natural gas and petroleum services” industry (B03), has on GDP. In addition, the indirect impact on total production will be positive.

Keywords: Gabon; Developing countries; Energy and environmental policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-07-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp, nep-ene and nep-hme
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