Determinantes del cambio de uso/cobertura arbolada en México: un enfoque a través de probabilidades de transición

Juan Torres Rojo (), Francisco Moreno and Octavio S. Magaña

No DTE 450, Working Papers from CIDE, División de Economía

Abstract: This paper describes the evolution of the systems used to predict land use cover/change. Based on cartographic information built by INEGI the dynamics of change of different types of land use during the period 1993-2000 is estimated; such information is used to compute transition probabilities among different types at state level. Then, by using logit models, those transitions probabilities are related to physical and socioeconomic variables to explain the dynamics of changes in temperate and tropical forest. This procedure isolates changes of different vegetation types into different uses, allowing the understanding of the dynamics of transformation on forest covers. Results show that basic transitions from forest covers to crops and grazing lands follow different dynamics for temperate than for tropical forests. When such differences are considered it is possible to distinguish among persistent land use changes than those which are temporal changes.

Keywords: land use; logit model; forest (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C31 Q24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 28 pages
Date: 2008-10
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