 A Cross-Country Causal Panorama of Human Development and SustainabilityDavid A Mayer Foulkes ()
No DTE 545, Working Papers from CIDE, División de Economía Abstract: A broad summary of the theoretical literature on economic growth shows that this theory has transcended the neoclassical paradigm and that market rationality does not govern the human development process. Instead human development is the appropriate standard for rationality. Using Gidwitz et al’s (2010) database of human development index (HDI) components (income, life expectancy, literacy, gross enrolment ratios, 1970-2010) for 135 countries, together with indicators of the demographic transition, urbanization, technological change, sustainability, and institutions (15 variables), I construct a panel for the 1985-2010 quinquennia, instruments for the same variables using the 1970-1980 data and conduct a descriptive dynamic analysis. The HDI distribution is broadly twin-peaked, corresponding to the demographic transition. I construct a matrix of causal interactions between the 15 variables, using three types of instrumented regressions for each matrix entry: a) levels regressions; b) growth regressions; c) growth regressions also containing the contemporary growth of independent variables. This analysis is repeated for 3 subsamples obtained according to HDI levels and another 3 according to technological levels. The Hausman and Sargan test results show a ranking of endogenous determination and indirect impacts of the variables on each other that varies qualitatively for levels and growth and across HDI and technological levels. I also conduct regression sets (a) and (b) for the main sustainability indicators. The results are discussed in the light of a survey of the recent empirical literature on human development, which also highlights human development as freedom. The main development transitions are broadly advancing at different stages: fertility, infant mortality, the dependency ratio, literacy, enrolment, life expectancy, urbanization, varying substantively across HDI and technological levels. Also, there is a transition towards more democracy and less autocracy. However, at very low HDI levels income per capita decreased. The main policy suggestions for promoting the demographic and human development transitions are to support: technology transfer to the poor, investments not supplied by the markets (human capital, urbanization, sustainability), the emergence of democracy, and global governance. Sustainability is supported by the demographic transition and requires the development of renewable energy, as proposed in the Green New Deal, with an emphasis on electricity. Keywords: Human development, demographic transition, technology transfer, democracy, causality. Keywords: Human development; demographic transition; technology transfer; democracy; causality (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:emc:wpaper:dte545 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in Working Papers from CIDE, División de Economía Contact information at EDIRC. |
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