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Note on neural network sampling for Bayesian inference of mixture processes

Lennart Hoogerheide and Herman van Dijk

No EI 2007-15, Econometric Institute Research Papers from Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute

Abstract: In this paper we show some further experiments with neural network sampling, a class of sampling methods that make use of neural network approximations to (posterior) densities, introduced by Hoogerheide et al. (2007). We consider a method where a mixture of Student's t densities, which can be interpreted as a neural network function, is used as a candidate density in importance sampling or the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. It is applied to an illustrative 2-regime mixture model for the US real GNP growth rate. We explain the non-elliptical shapes of the posterior distribution, and show that the proposed method outperforms Gibbs sampling with data augmentation and the griddy Gibbs sampler.

Date: 2007-04-30
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