Improved forecasting with leading indicators: the principal covariate index

Christiaan Heij

No EI 2007-23, Econometric Institute Research Papers from Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute

Abstract: We propose a new method of leading index construction that combines the need for data compression with the objective of forecasting. This so-called principal covariate index is constructed to forecast growth rates of the Composite Coincident Index. The forecast performance is compared with an alternative index based on principal components and with the Composite Leading Index of the Conference Board. The results show that the new index, which takes the forecast objective explicitly into account, provides significant gains over other single-index methods, both in terms of forecast accuracy and in terms of predicting recession probabilities.

Keywords: business cycles; index construction; principal covariate; principal component; time series forecasting; turning points (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C53 E17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-06-21
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