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Modeling regional house prices

Bram van Dijk, Philip Hans Franses, Richard Paap and Dick van Dijk
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Dick van Dijk ()

No EI 2007-55, Econometric Institute Research Papers from Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute

Abstract: We develop a parsimonious panel model for quarterly regional house prices, for which both the cross-section and the time series dimension is large. The model allows for stochastic trends, cointegration, cross-equation correlations and, most importantly, latent-class clustering of regions. Class membership is fully data-driven and based on (i) average growth rates of house prices, (ii) the propagation of shocks to house prices across regions, also known as the ripple effect, and (iii) the relationship of house prices with economic growth and other variables. Applying the model to quarterly data for the Netherlands, we find convincing evidence for the existence of two distinct clusters of regions, with pronounced differences in house price dynamics.

Keywords: cointegration; cross-section dependence; ripple effect (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C21 C23 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-12-01
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Journal Article: Modelling regional house prices (2011) Downloads
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