Forecasting Annual Inflation in Suriname

Gavin Ooft, Sailesh Bhaghoe and Philip Hans Franses

No EI2019-32, Econometric Institute Research Papers from Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute

Abstract: For many countries, statistical information on macroeconomic variables is not abundant and hence creating forecasts can be cumbersome. This paper addresses the creation of current year forecasts from a MIDAS regression for annual inflation rates where monthly inflation rates are the explanatory variables, and where the latter are only available for the last one and a half decade. The model can be viewed as a hybrid New-Keynesian Philips curve (NKPC). Specific focus is given to the forecast accuracy concerning the high inflation period in 2016-2017.

Keywords: Inflation; New Keynesian Phillips curve; Rational Expectations; MIDAS Regression; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E12 E17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 22
Date: 2019-09-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://repub.eur.nl/pub/120337/EI2019-32.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Forecasting annual inflation in Suriname (2021)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ems:eureir:120337

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Econometric Institute Research Papers from Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by RePub ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).