Seasonal adjustment and the business cycle in unemployment
Philip Hans Franses and
Paul de Bruin
No EI 9923-/A, Econometric Institute Research Papers from Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute
Several recent studies show that seasonal variation and cyclical variation in unemployment are correlated. A common finding is that seasonality tends to differ across the business cycle stages of recessions and expansions. Since seasonal adjustment methods assume that the two sources of variation can somehow be separated, the present study examines the impact of seasonal adjustment on the analysis of cyclical patterns. Seasonally adjusted quarterly unemployment data for 5 G-7 countries are modeled by a Smooth Transition Autoregression [STAR] while the corresponding unadjusted data are modeled by a so-called Seasonal STAR [SEASTAR]. A comparison of the implied estimated peaks and troughs shows that there is substantial agreement on the business cycle chronologies, albeit that for seasonally adjusted data recessionary periods tend to last longer.
Keywords: business cycle; seasonal adjustment; seasonality; unemployment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Journal Article: Seasonal Adjustment and the Business Cycle in Unemployment (2000)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ems:eureir:1593
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Econometric Institute Research Papers from Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by RePub ().