Forecasting Sales

Philip Hans Franses

No EI 2009-29, Econometric Institute Research Papers from Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute

Abstract: This chapter deals with forecasting sales (in units or money), where an explicit distinction is made between sales of durable goods (computers, cars, books) and sales of utilitarian products (SKU level in supermarkets). Invariably, sales forecasting amounts to a combination of statistical modeling and an expert’s touch. Models for durable goods sales are usually based on (variants of) the Bass model, while SKU sales forecasts are typically based on simple extrapolation methods. Forecast evaluation is not standard due to the interaction of model and expert.

Keywords: SKU-level sales; diffusion; durable goods; human judgment; sales forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009-11-09
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