EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Do experts' SKU forecasts improve after feedback?

Rianne Legerstee and Philip Hans Franses

No EI2011-31, Econometric Institute Research Papers from Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute

Abstract: We analyze the behavior of experts who quote forecasts for monthly SKU-level sales data where we compare data before and after the moment that experts received different kinds of feedback on their behavior. We have data for 21 experts located in as many countries who make SKUlevel forecasts for a variety of pharmaceutical products for October 2006 to September 2007. We study the behavior of the experts by comparing their forecasts with those from an automated statistical program, and we report the forecast accuracy over these 12 months. In September 2007 these experts were given feedback on their behavior and they received a training at the headquarters' office, where specific attention was given to the ins and outs of the statistical program. Next, we study the behavior of the experts for the 3 months after the training session, that is, October 2007 to December 2007. Our main conclusion is that in the second period the experts' forecasts deviated less from the statistical forecasts and that their accuracy improved substantially.

Keywords: cognitive process feedback; expert forecasts; judgmental adjustment; model forecasts; outcome feedback; performance feedback; task properties feedback (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-09-22
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://repub.eur.nl/pub/26656/EI2011-31.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Do Experts’ SKU Forecasts Improve after Feedback? (2014) Downloads
Working Paper: Do Experts' SKU Forecasts improve after Feedback? (2011) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ems:eureir:26656

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Econometric Institute Research Papers from Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by RePub ().

 
Page updated 2019-08-20
Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:26656