Real time estimates of GDP growth

Bert de Groot and Philip Hans Franses

No EI 2005-01, Econometric Institute Research Papers from Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute

Abstract: This paper describes the components of the EICIE, the Econometric Institute Current Indicator of the Economy. This measure concerns quarterly and annual growth of Dutch real Gross Domestic Product. The key component of our real-time forecasting model for Dutch quarterly GDP is weekly staffing services obtained from Randstad company, which is single explanatory variable. We show that these two variables are cointegrated, and that the staffing variable helps to give quarterly GDP figures with just a two-week delay.

Keywords: Current indicator; GDP; Staffing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 O4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005-01-30
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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