Long-term forecast for the Dutch economy

Philip Hans Franses and Bert de Groot

No EI 2006-06, Econometric Institute Research Papers from Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute

Abstract: A strong link exists between Randstad's temporary sta±ng services and Dutch GDP. The two annual series share a stochastic trend and two long-swing deterministic cycles. Causality appears to run from temporary sta±ng to GDP and not vice versa. These features are taken aboard in a simple forecasting model for Dutch GDP growth for the period 2005-2015. The forecasts suggest growth rates around 2 per cent, with a dip to be expected around 2012-2013.

Date: 2006-01-24
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