Stability through cycles

Bert de Groot and Philip Hans Franses

No EI 2006-07, Econometric Institute Research Papers from Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute

Abstract: Economic variables like GDP growth, employment, interest rates and consumption show signs of cyclical behavior. Many variables display multiple cycles, with lengths ranging in between 5 to even up to 100 years. We argue that multiple cycles can be associated with long-run stability of the economic system, provided that the cycle lengths are such that interference is rare or absent. For a large sample of important variables, including key variables for the US, UK and the Netherlands, we document that this is indeed the case.

Keywords: Fibonacci; business cycles; economic stability; long waves (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006-04-10
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