Competitive Capacity Investment under Uncertainty

Xishu Li, Rob Zuidwijk, René de Koster and Rommert Dekker

ERIM Report Series Research in Management from Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam

Abstract: We consider a long-term capacity investment problem in a competitive market under demand uncertainty. Two firms move sequentially in the competition and a firm’s capacity decision interacts with the other firm’s current and future capacity. Throughout the investment race, a firm can either choose to plan its investments proactively, taking into account possible responses from the other firm, or decide to respond reactively to the competition. In both cases, the optimal decision at each period is determined according to an ISD (Invest, Stayput, Disinvest) policy. We develop two algorithms to efficiently derive proactive ISD policies for the leader and follower firms. Using data from the container shipping market (2000-2015), we show that the optimal capacity determined by our competitive strategy is consistent with the realized investments in practice. By revealing strategical flexibility of proactive strategies, our results demonstrate that firms in the competition can gain more capacity and profit through such a strategy. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we explore the impact of different market conditions and investment irreversibility levels on capacity strategies. In particular, by comparing the results of competitive strategies and strategies that separate firms into different markets, we show that both firms can benefit from the competition and that market downturns likely lead to investment cascades.

Keywords: capacity; dynamic investment; proactive strategy; Stackelberg competition; feedback policies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36
Date: 2016-03-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-com and nep-ind
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