Holding Period Return-Risk Modeling: Ambiguity in Estimation

Winfried Hallerbach

ERIM Report Series Research in Management from Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam

Abstract: In this paper we explore the theoretical and empirical problems of estimating average (excess) return and risk of US equities over various holding periods and sample periods. Our findings are relevant for performance evaluation, for estimating the historical equity risk premium, and for investment simulation. Using a unique set of US equity data series, comprising monthly prices and dividends based on consistent definitions over the 132 year period 1871-2002, we investigate the complex effect of temporal return aggregation and sample estimation error. Our major finding is that holding period risk and return statistics show an extraordinary sensitivity to the choice of the starting point in calendar time. For example, over the period 1926-2002 there is a difference of almost 140 basis points between the average annual total return starting in January compared to starting in July, and a difference of almost 7 (!) percentage points in estimated annual volatility. This is yet another way in which stock price seasonality manifests itself, but this ambiguity in the underlying estimation process seems completely neglected in the current literature.

Keywords: equity risk premium; holding period return; stock price seasonality; temporal aggregation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C13 C22 C89 G14 G3 M (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003-09-25
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