Update on the Venezuelan Economy

Mark Weisbrot and Rebecca Ray

CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs from Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR)

Abstract: This paper examines recent economic data, including the most recent data released the third week of August 2010, in an attempt to evaluate the Venezuelan economy's prospects in the foreseeable future. It finds that the Venezuelan economy, which went into recession in the first quarter of 2009 after six years of record economic growth, is now most likely in recovery, and that the 2009 recession has probably ended. This is based on seasonally adjusted quarterly data, which show that the Venezuelan economy grew by an estimated 5.2 percent in the second quarter of 2010, on an annualized basis. The paper then considers possibilities and arguments that the Venezuelan economy will remain mired in recession or stagnation, and/or is doomed to long term decline. It finds that although there are a number of analysts who are predicting that the Venezuelan economy is on the verge of inevitable (and long-anticipated) ruin, there is nothing in the recent data – or that of the last decade – to indicate that this is true.

Keywords: venezuela; foreign exchange; economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E E2 E58 E6 E61 E62 E65 F F1 F14 I O O4 O54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 19 pages
Date: 2010-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-lam and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:epo:papers:2010-20

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