Potential for Trouble: The IMF's Estimates of Potential GDP

David Rosnick

CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs from Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR)

Abstract: This issue brief examines the IMF’s methodology for estimating potential GDP, and its pitfalls and problems. A number of economists have noted recent problems with overestimates of actual GDP in recent years in Greece, and the IMF’s own research has found that the multipliers associated with fiscal tightening had been underestimated. But the policy and political implications of potential GDP estimates, which are not only forecasts but also continuously revised for past estimates, may be even more important.

JEL-codes: A A1 A11 B B4 B40 B41 F F5 F53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 6 pages
Date: 2016-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-pke
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://cepr.net/images/stories/reports/Potential-GDP-2016-04.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:epo:papers:2016-08

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs from Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().