Long-run Economic Impacts of Thai Flooding: Geographical Simulation Analysis

Ikumo Isono and Satoru Kumagai
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Satoru Kumagai: Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization (IDEJETRO)

No DP-2013-08, Working Papers from Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)

Abstract: We discuss the long-run economic impact of natural disasters on the countries concerned by examining the case of Thai flooding in 2011. If the damage caused by disasters is really serious, industries will move out from the countries in question, and this outflow leads to a negative impact on the national economies in the long run. By using IDE/ERIA-GSM and utilizing short-run forecast for the basic setting, we estimate the seriousness of the flooding in terms of the long-term economic performance. Simulation results show that negative long-run impacts of the flood will be moderate, because many companies’ first reaction to the flood was to seek possible relocation of their production sites within Thailand

Keywords: Thailand; flood; new economic geography; computable general equilibrium models; disaster management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O53 Q54 R13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31 pages.
Date: 2013-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp, nep-dev, nep-geo and nep-sea
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