Tracking the Ups and Downs in Indonesia’s Economic Activity During COVID-19 Using Mobility Index: Evidence from Provinces in Java and Bali
Yose Rizal Damuri,
Prabaning Tyas,
Haryo Aswicahyono,
Lionel Priyadi,
Stella Kusumawardhani and
Ega Kurnia Yazid
Additional contact information
Yose Rizal Damuri: Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Indonesia
Prabaning Tyas: Tenggara Strategics, Indonesia
Stella Kusumawardhani: Tenggara Strategics, Indonesia
Ega Kurnia Yazid: Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Indonesia
No DP-2021-18, Working Papers from Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
A timely and reliable prediction of economic activities is crucial in policymaking, especially in the current COVID-19 pandemic situation, which requires real-time decisions. However, making frequent predictions is challenging due to the substantial delays in releasing aggregate economic data. This study aims to nowcast Indonesia’s economic activities during the COVID-19 pandemic using the novel high-frequency Facebook Mobility Index as a predictor. Employing mixed-frequency, mixed-data sampling, and benchmark least-squares models, we expanded the mobility index and used it to track the growth dynamics of the gross regional domestic product of provinces in Java and Bali and performed a bottom-up approach to estimate the aggregated economic growth of the provinces altogether. Our results suggested that the daily Facebook Mobility Index was a considerably reliable predictor for projecting economic activities on time. All models almost consistently produced reliable directional predictions. Notably, we found the mixed data sampling-autoregressive model to be slightly superior to the other models in terms of overall precision and directional predictive accuracy across observations.
Keywords: COVID-19; nowcasting; GDP; mobility; Mixed-frequency (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C20 C53 R11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-07-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big, nep-isf, nep-mac, nep-sea and nep-ure
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:
Downloads: (external link)
https://www.eria.org/uploads/media/discussion-pape ... g-Mobility-Index.pdf (application/pdf)
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-18
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Working Papers from Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Ranti Amelia ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).