A GMM APPROACH FOR AN EXPLANATION OF THE FERTILITY CHANGE UPWARD IN TUNISIA

Olfa Frini

No 1409, Working Papers from Economic Research Forum

Abstract: In Tunisia as in some Arab countries like in Algeria and Egypt, fertility has known, after a deep decline, a steady increase from the mid of 2000s. This paper tries to apprehend this unexpected and current demographic issue. For that aim, we revisit the classical fertility decline factors (namely education, income, mortality and contraceptive prevalence) in order to inspect if they do no longer influence fertility downward. Furthermore, we explore three new socio-economic factors likely to favor fertility rise, such as divorce, unemployment and longevity. We apply the dynamic one-step generalized method of moments (GMM) method over the period 1999-2017 on eight Tunisian regions. Findings confirm our presumption. The three new variables estimated have a positive effect on fertility. Likewise, the educationfertility interaction is no longer obvious. Family planning program appears no longer playing its role. The income effect dominated the substitution effect in favor of fertility increase. The increasing fertility trend in Tunisia seems to be caused by the sociocultural factors.

Pages: 20
Date: 2020-10-20, Revised 2020-10-20
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