Economic, Social and Institutional Determinants of Internal Conflict in Fragile States

Syed All-e-Raza Rizvi () and Marie-Ange Véganzonès
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Syed All-e-Raza Rizvi: Université Clermont Auvergne

No 1538, Working Papers from Economic Research Forum

Abstract: In this paper, we use fixed-effect Poisson regressions (FEPR) with robust standard errors and instrumental variables (IV) to study the economic, social, and institutional determinants of internal conflicts in 58 fragile states from 2004 to 2017. We show that effective institutions (measured by judicial efficiency) and higher incomes could help reduce conflict in fragile states. In contrast, trade reform does not seem to mitigate violence in these countries. It also appears that educational and democratic institutions can fuel conflict in some cases. These results imply that education and trade liberalization do not have the expected effects in fragile countries, which should first improve their social, economic, and institutional situation before benefiting from economic reform and education. This may also be the case for political reforms, as democratic experiences seem to lead to increased violence in some countries in our sample.

Pages: 43
Date: 2022-02-20, Revised 2022-02-20
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Published by The Economic Research Forum (ERF)

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