The Interplay Between Fertility and Female Labor Market Dynamics in the Arab Region: A Panel Time Series Analysis

Mohammed Ali (), Ebaidallah Ebaidallah () and Manal Elhaj ()
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Mohammed Ali: University of Khartoum
Ebaidallah Ebaidallah: University of Khartoum
Manal Elhaj: Princess Nourah Bint Abdulrahman University

No 1792, Working Papers from Economic Research Forum

Abstract: This study investigates the complex relationship between fertility and female labor force participation in the Arab region, where sociocultural norms often constrain women’s economic empowerment. Using panel data from 1991 to 2023 across 15 Arab countries, the analysis employs the Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) model to address potential endogeneity and account for dynamic heterogeneity. The results show that higher fertility rates reduce labor market participation among women aged 15–64, while, somewhat unexpectedly, increasing participation among younger women aged 15–24. However, fertility is associated with higher unemployment rates in both age groups. These findings highlight the need for targeted policy interventions to support women’s employment, including expanded access to reproductive health services, flexible work arrangements, affordable childcare, and broader gender equity initiatives. The study’s key contribution lies in its region-wide, longitudinal approach, offering new insights that extend beyond previous country-specific or cross-sectional analyses.

Pages: 25
Date: 2025-08-20, Revised 2025-08-20
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Published by The Economic Research Forum (ERF)

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