Do Savers Learn from Experience? Evidence from Pension Contributions

Sadettin Çitçi (), Halit Yanikkaya () and Yunis Dede ()
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Sadettin Çitçi: Gebze Technical University
Halit Yanikkaya: Gebze Technical University
Yunis Dede: Gebze Technical University

No 1799, Working Papers from Economic Research Forum

Abstract: We examine whether households’ voluntary retirement saving decisions are influenced by reinforcement learning (RL), a behavioral heuristic where recent outcomes disproportionately shape future choices. Using eight years of universe-wide administrative data from Türkiye’s Individual Pension System, we show that savers over-weight recent return experiences. Specifically, individuals experiencing higher returns in one year substantially increase their voluntary contributions in the following year, and past returns continue to affect contributions with a diminished but persistent impact. The implied one-year learning weight is moderate, closely mirroring laboratory estimates. Alternative explanations such as inertia, skill learning, or asset rebalancing do not explain these observed behaviors

Pages: 21
Date: 2025-10-20, Revised 2025-10-20
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Published by The Economic Research Forum (ERF)

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