Did the Global Financial Crisis and Recession Contribute to the Uprisings in North Africa?

Hassan Aly () and Mark Strazicich ()
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Hassan Aly: The Ohio State University, USA

No 651, Working Papers from Economic Research Forum

Abstract: In this paper, we utilize time series tests with structural breaks to test for evidence of an adverse impact on economic growth rates in North African countries following the 2007-2009 global financial crisis and recession. One or two structural breaks in economic growth are identified in each country, except for Morocco where no break is found. However, breaks that coincide with the financial crisis are found in only two of the six countries (Libya and Mauritania), while other breaks coincide most often with earlier U.S. or EU recessions. To further examine the impact of shocks, impulse response functions are estimated from VAR models with structural breaks. We again find no evidence that shocks from the recent financial crisis will have a significant impact on economic growth in North Africa. We conclude that shocks from the 2007-2009 global economic crisis will have only temporary effects on economic growth rates in North Africa and are likely not a main factor to explain the uprisings in 2011.

Pages: 24
Date: 2011-01-12, Revised 2011-01-12
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