Economic Growth in the Middle East and North Africa: An International Perspective

Daniel Cohen and M. Hammour

No 9403, Working Papers from Economic Research Forum

Abstract: This paper examines from an international perspective the growth experience of a group of 'non-oil' economies in the Middle East and North Africa region - Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco - over the period 1966-85. The empirical framework focuses on four central variables: per-capita income, investment, school enrollment and population growth. An estimate is made of the relationship these variables have with each other as well as with other variables in a cross-section of nearly ninety countries, and the question is asked whether the regional group of countries conform to an international pattern. The main regional features uncovered are: (l) exceptionally high fertility rates compared to other countries at a similar stage of development, which may or not have imposed a heavy drag on economic growth; (2) a bias in national savings away from physical capital accumulation and, in the Mashreq, toward human capital accumulation; (3) a very low initial income level in 1966, compared to the 'balanced-growth' level predicted from international experience; and (4) a substantially higher level of income in 1985 compared to countries with similar savings behavior and a similar starting point. Apparently, with the likely help of the regional oil boom of the 1970s, the regional group of countries was able to close the initial negative income gap much faster than other countries with similar characteristics.

Date: 1994-03-03, Revised 1994-03-03
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