How accurate do markets predict the outcome of an event? The Euro 2000 soccer championships experiment

Carsten Schmidt and Axel Werwatz

Papers on Strategic Interaction from Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group

Abstract: For the Euro 2000 Soccer Championships an experimental asset market was conducted, with traders buying and selling contracts on the winners of individual matches. Market-generated probabilities are compared to professional bet quotas, and factors that are responsible for the quality of the market prognosis are identified. The comparison shows, that the market is more accurate than the random predictor and slightly better than professional bet quotas, in the sense of mean square error. Moreover, the more certain the market predicts the outcome of an event the more accurate is the prediction.

Keywords: experimental asset markets; prognosis; market efficiency (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C93 D4 G1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 22 pages
Date: 2002-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-exp and nep-spo
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Working Paper: How accurate do markets predict the outcome of an event? The Euro 2000 soccer championships experiment (2002)
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