A Long-term Projection of Demand for At-home Care Services in Japan (Revision)(in Japanese)

Satoshi Shimizutani and Haruko Noguchi

ESRI Discussion paper series from Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)

Abstract: This is a revision of our previous paper (Shimizutani and Noguchi (2002) ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.60) based on a new dataset extended to 2003. This study takes advantage of micro-level information to make a projection of demand for at-home care services in Japan. We have observed a rapid increase in demand for long-term care services after 2001, a large part of which came from an increase in demand for at-home care services. Thus, an estimation of future at-home care should be useful for predicting trends in the long-term care market and be an important base for policy planning. The increase in demand for at-home care comes from four main areas: (1) the change in the number of those who need care, (2) the share of those with requirement certification, (3) the share of those who actually receive any type of care services, and (4) the cost of care per an eligible person. As discussed in the previous study, we utilize our unique survey on households with a care receiver to estimate (2), (3), and (4). Our empirical results report that the projection is slightly revised upwardly due to a higher share of the elderly to receive requirement certification. Our projection reports that the amount of at-home care demand in 2010 will be 3.6 trillion yen, or that will increase to 5.2 trillion yen in 2025. Our results demonstrate a rapid increase in at-home care services in the near future. We should seriously consider institutional reform in the public LTC insurance industry to provide sufficient services with higher quality under severe budget constraints.

Pages: 28 pages
Date: 2005-02
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