The ESRI Short-Run Macroeconometric Model of the Japanese Economy (2015version): Basic Structure, Multipliers, and Economic Policy Analyses

Koji Hamada, Masahiro Hori, Takashi Hanagaki, Ruriko Yokoyama, Taisuke Kameda and Koichiro Iwamoto

ESRI Discussion paper series from Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)

Abstract: This paper describes the basic structure and multipliers of the 2015 version of The ESRI Short-Run Macroeconometric Model of the Japanese Economy, which was first released in 1998. The model is basically a demand-oriented, traditional Keynesian model with IS-LM-BP framework; however, it adopts recent developments in econometrics, such as co-integration and error correction to ensure long-run properties of the model. The followings are some of the multipliers of policy simulations. The fiscal multiplier, i.e., the effect of government investments on GDP, is 1.14 in the first year. The effect of income tax reduction is slightly smaller (than that of the fiscal expenditures) due to its leak to household savings. 1% point rise of short-term interest rate reduces real GDP by 0.32% in the first year.

Pages: 84 pages
Date: 2015-01
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:esj:esridp:314

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