Scenarios of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Aviation
Karen Mayor () and
Richard Tol ()
No WP244, Papers from Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)
We use a model of international and domestic tourist numbers and flows to forecast tourist numbers and emissions from international tourism out to 2100. We find that between 2005 and 2100 international tourism grows by a factor of 12. Not only do people take more trips but these also increase in length. We find that the growth in tourism is mainly fuelled by an increase in trips from Asian countries. Emissions follow this growth pattern until 2060 when emissions per passenger-kilometre start to fall due to improvements in fuel efficiency. Forecasted emissions are also presented for the four SRES scenarios and maintain the same growth pattern but the levels of emissions differ substantially. We find that the forecasts are sensitive to the period to which the model is calibrated, the assumed rate of improvement in fuel efficiency and the imposed climate policy scenario.
Keywords: Carbon dioxide emissions; international tourism; long-term forecasting; aviation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-env, nep-for, nep-sea and nep-tur
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
http://www.esri.ie/pubs/WP244.pdf First version, 2008 (application/pdf)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp244
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Papers from Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sarah Burns ().