Checking the Price Tag on Catastrophe: The Social Cost of Carbon Under Non-linear Climate Response
David Anthoff (),
Cameron Hepburn () and
Richard Tol ()
No WP392, Papers from Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)
Research into the social cost of carbon emissions — the marginal social damage from a tonne of emitted carbon ? has tended to focus on "best guess" scenarios. Such scenarios generally ignore the potential for low-probability, high-damage events, which are critically important to determining optimal climate policy. This paper uses the FUND integrated assessment model to investigate the influence of three types of low-probability, high-impact climate responses on the social cost of carbon: the collapse of the Atlantic Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation; large scale dissociation of oceanic methane hydrates; and climate sensitivities above "best guess" levels. We find that incorporating these events can increase the social cost of carbon by a factor of over 3.
Keywords: Social; cost; of; carbon/cost/scenarios/Climate; policy/Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Working Paper: CHECKING THE PRICE TAG ON CATASTROPHE: THE SOCIAL COST OF CARBON UNDER NON-LINEAR CLIMATE RESPONSE (2005)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp392
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