External Validity in a Stochastic World

Mark Rosenzweig and Christopher Udry

Working Papers from eSocialSciences

Abstract: This paper examines the generalizability of internally valid estimates of causal effects in a fixed population over time when that population is subject to aggregate shocks. This temporal external validity is shown to depend upon the distribution of the aggregate shocks and the interaction between these shocks and the casual effects. It shows that returns to investment in agriculture, small and medium enterprises and human capital differ significantly from year to year. It also shows how returns to investments interact with specific aggregate shocks, and estimate the parameters of the distributions of these shocks. The paper further shows how to use these estimates to appropriately widen estimated confidence intervals to account for aggregate shocks. [Working Paper 22449]

Keywords: Stochastic; causal effect; fixed population; aggregate shocks; small and medium enterprises (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-07
Note: Institutional Papers
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Related works:
Working Paper: External Validity in a Stochastic World (2016)
Working Paper: External Validity in a Stochastic World (2016)
Working Paper: External Validity in a Stochastic World (2016)
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