An Analysis of Revisions in Indian GDP Data

Amey Sapre and Rajeswari Sengupta

Working Papers from eSocialSciences

Abstract: This paper studies the revisions in the annual estimates of India's GDP data. The objective of the analysis is to understand the revision policy adopted by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) and the issues therein. Using historic data, the paper studies the magnitude and quality of revisions in the aggregate as well as the sectoral GDP series. It analyzes the computation of the sectoral revised estimates and compares the extent of revision in growth rates from the first release to the final estimate. To understand the magnitude of revisions, it computes the standard deviation of revisions in growth rates for each sector and use that to build confidence bands around the initial estimates. The confidence bands provide a means to understand the extent of variation in the final growth rate estimate, and at the same time, provide a mechanism to contain revisions. Based on the analysis, the paper highlights some of the major issues in CSO's revision policy. It outlines the possible solutions that can be implemented to improve the quality of GDP data revisions. The paper identifies the sectors with large variations in growth rates and argue that improving or changing the low quality indicators can help contain growth rate revisions and enhance the credibility of the estimates.

Keywords: GDP; National Accounts; Revisions; annual estimate; revision policy; India; Central Statistical Organisation (CSO); sectoral GDP series; quality of revisions; growth rate; final estimate; magnitude of revisions; credibility; quality indicators. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-09
Note: Institutional Papers
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Analysis of Revisions in Indian GDP Data (2017)
Working Paper: An analysis of revisions in Indian GDP data (2017)
Working Paper: An analysis of revisions in Indian GDP data (2017)
Working Paper: An analysis of revisions in Indian GDP data (2017)
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